Risk Overview
Understand how Management of Risk works. Risk is the effect (positive or negative) of an event or series of events that take place in one or several locations. It is computed from the probability of the event becoming an issue and the impact it would have (See Risk = Probability X Impact). Various factors should be identified in order to analyze risk, including:
Event: What could happen?
Probability: How likely is it to happen?
Impact: How bad will it be if it happens?
Mitigation: How can you reduce the Probability (and by how much)?
Contingency: How can you reduce the Impact (and by how much)?
Reduction = Mitigation X Contingency
Exposure = Risk – Reduction
After you identify the above, the result will be what’s called Exposure – that’s the amount of risk you simply can’t avoid. Exposure may also be referred to as Threat, Liability, Severity or other names but they pretty much mean the same thing. It will be used to help determine if the planned activity should take place.
Often this is a simple cost vs. benefits formula. You might use these elements to determine if the risk of implementing the change is higher, or lower, than the risk of not implementing the change.
Assumed Risk If you decide to proceed (sometimes there is no choice, e.g. federally mandated changes) then your Exposure becomes what is known as Assumed Risk. In some environments, Assumed Risk is reduced to a dollar value which is then used to calculate the profitability of the end product.
Define your project. In this article, let’s pretend you are responsible for a [[Make a Modular Dream Computer System|computer system]] that provides important (but not life-critical) information to some
large population. The main computer on which this system resides is old and needs to be replaced. Your task is to develop a Risk Management Plan for the migration. This will be a simplified model where Risk and Impact are listed as High, Medium or Low (that is very common especially in Project Management).
Get input from others. [[Brainstorm|Brainstorm]] on risks. Get several people together that are familiar with the project and ask for input on what could happen, how to help prevent it, and what to do if it does happen. Take a ”lot” of notes! You will use the output of this very important session several times during the following steps. Try to keep an open mind about ideas. “Out of the box” thinking is good, but do keep control of the session. It needs to stay focused and on target.
Identify the consequences of each risk. From your brainstorming session, you gathered information about what would happen if risks materialized. Associate each risk with the consequences arrived at during that session. Be as specific as possible with each one. “Project Delay” is not as desirable as “Project will be delayed by 13 days.” If there is a dollar value, list it; just saying “Over Budget” is too general.
Eliminate irrelevant issues. If you’re moving, for example, a car dealership’s computer system, then threats such as nuclear war, plague pandemic or killer asteroids are pretty much things that will disrupt the project. There’s nothing you can do to plan for them or to lessen the impact. You might keep them in mind, but don’t put that kind of thing on your risk plan (OK, if you’re working for the United Nations, maybe).
List all identified risk elements. You don’t need to put them in any order just yet. Just list them one-by-one.
Assign probability. For each risk element on your list, determine if the likelihood of it actually materializing is High, Medium or Low. If you absolutely have to use numbers, then figure Probability on a scale from 0.00 to 1.00. 0.01 to 0.33 = Low, 0.34 to 0.66 = Medium, 0.67 to 1.00 = High.
Note: If the probability of an event occurring is ZERO, then it will be removed from consideration. There’s no reason to consider things that simply cannot happen i.e. major ice storm in Miami.
Assign impact. In general, assign Impact as High, Medium or Low based on some pre-established guidelines. If you absolutely have to use numbers, then figure Impact on a scale from 0.00 to 1.00 as follows: 0.01 to 0.33 = Low, 0.34 – 066 = Medium, 0.67 – 1.00 = High.
Note: If the impact of an event is ZERO, it should not be listed. There’s no reason to consider things that are irrelevant, regardless of the probability
‘Determine risk for the element.”’ Often, a table is used for this. If you have used the Low, Medium, High values for Probability and Impact, the top table is most useful. If you have used numeric values, you will need to consider a bit more complex rating system similar to the second table here. It is important to note that there is no universal formula for combining Probability and Impact; that will vary between people, and between projects.
‘Rank the risks:”’ List all the elements you have identified from the highest risk to the lowest risk
Compute the total risk. The average of the total risk is then 0.5 which translates to Medium.
Develop mitigation strategies. Mitigation is designed to reduce the probability that a risk will materialize. Normally you will only do this for High and Medium elements. You might want to mitigate low risk items but certainly address the other ones first. For example, if one of your risk elements is that there could be a delay in delivery of critical parts, you might mitigate the risk by ordering early in the project.
Develop contingency plans. Contingency is designed to reduce the impact if a risk does materialize. Again, you will usually only develop contingencies for High and Medium elements. For example, if the critical parts you need do not arrive on time, you might have to use old, existing parts while you’re waiting for the new ones.
Analyze the effectiveness of strategies.”’ How much have you reduced the Probability and Impact? Evaluate your Contingency and Mitigation strategies and reassign Effective Ratings to your risks.
Compute your effective risk. ”’Monitor your risks.”’ Now that you know what your risks are, you need to determine how you’ll know if they materialize so you’ll know when and if you should put your contingencies in place. This is done by identifying Risk Cues. Do this for each one of your High and Medium risk elements. Then, as your project progresses, you will be able to determine if a risk element has become an issue. If you don’t know these cues, it is very possible a risk could silently materialize and affect the project, even if you have good contingencies in place